CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2015-09-30T09:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-09-30T09:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/9432/-1
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-10-04T09:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note: 
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2015 Oct 02 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 02-Oct 04 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 02-Oct 04 2015

            Oct 02     Oct 03     Oct 04
00-03UT        4          4          5 (G1)
03-06UT        4          4          5 (G1)
06-09UT        5 (G1)     4          5 (G1)
09-12UT        4          4          4     
12-15UT        3          3          4     
15-18UT        3          3          3     
18-21UT        4          3          3     
21-00UT        4          5 (G1)     4     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic storms are likely on days one through
three (02-04 Oct) due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream for
02 Oct, 03-04 Oct are forecast to reach G1 conditions due to possible
CME impacts from multiple CMEs that lifted off on 30 Sep.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Lead Time: 81.53 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2015-09-30T23:28Z
CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy